13 responses

• todd Apr 23, 2008
   

  tight race, but not great news for Obama, since he really needs to keep the lead tight.

   
• Jim Cowie Apr 23, 2008
   

  if obama holds it to a loss by less than 10%, he wins. the delegate split will be very close. because of weird PA rules he could even take majority of delegate count under a narrow-loss scenario if he wins the right counties.

   
• todd Apr 23, 2008
   

  he did that in TX (lost popular vote, took the delegate count) and delaware, too, right?

   
• todd Apr 23, 2008
   

  NPR now has it 52% to 48%. that's not good for clinton, i guess.

   
• Jim Cowie Apr 23, 2008
   

  cnn called it for clinton by 8% with 49% reporting. that will presumably widen as he rural votes come in.

   
• smckenzie23 Apr 23, 2008
   

  It will be slightly under 10. Nothing matters at this point but the supers. No way she'll ever catch up in delegates, won states or popular vote. Supers will break for Obama in the next couple of weeks and her 1 or 2 losses on the 6th will force her to concede.

   
• smckenzie23 Apr 23, 2008
   

  Same would be true if she had won by 20.

   
• todd Apr 23, 2008
   

  came in at 10, it looks like. sigh. this goes on.

   
• Jim Cowie Apr 23, 2008
   

  the margin of victory was about 210K votes. 100K voters changed party affiliations in order to vote in this closed primary in the last weeks. So if you factor out the republicans who came over to vote for hillary, it's probably more like 5 or 6%. It's all spin ...

   
• todd Apr 23, 2008
   

  jim: do you have evidence that a significant number of republicans registered as democrats in PA? i know it happened in OH and in TX due to the Rush Limbaugh promotion of that strategy, but i haven't read about it in PA

   
• Jim Cowie Apr 23, 2008
   

  here

   
• Jim Cowie Apr 23, 2008
   

  all we know is the number of people who changed party. but the "republicans for hillary" explanation seems plausible as an explanation. so too, to some extent, would "independents for obama." so we can't be sure without better numbers.

   
• smckenzie23 Apr 23, 2008
   

  The state was always her state. Lots of old people and low information poor white voters. A month ago she was polling a 20-25% advantage.